Earlier this month, in their monthly discussion called El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued an El Nino Watch. In other words, they believe that an El Nino is in the process of developing.
This hasn’t, to my knowledge, become big news in the media yet, but with all of the weather hype normally associated with an El Nino, we might soon start hearing cries to run for our lives–it’s an El Nino!!!!!
What Does This Mean?
At this point, it doesn’t mean much.
First, the water in the equatorial Pacific has not yet warmed to a point of reaching the criteria of an El Nino, and according to the CPC discussion (linked above), there is conflicting information based on computer forecast models as to whether one will develop during the next couple of months. In other words, it’s not yet certain that an El Nino will occur.
Second, with the conflicting information, it appears as if the El Nino would most likely be fairly weak in intensity, at least during the summer. The weaker it is, the less impact it will have.
Third, the effect of an El Nino on the global weather pattern is more dramatic during the winter than the summer, so even if one forms, it’s probably more important to be concerned with the intensity and duration of the El Nino for the upcoming winter than during the summer.
What Could it Mean?
In the longer range, it could continue to mean very little–or it could mean a great deal to global weather patterns.
As I mentioned above, an on-going El Nino has a greater impact on global weather patterns during the winter, but if the El Nino develops and then remains weak, it may still not be an important weather factor globally.
If it develops and then becomes intense, though, it would have a major impact on the weather–in fairly predictable ways.
Those are topics that I’ll discuss in future posts–perhaps starting as soon as early July if the conditions in the equatorial Pacific meet the conditions of an El Nino.
–Paul Yeager
