We talked about the possibility of the development of an early-season Atlantic Basin tropical system couple of weeks ago (Tropical Storm Ana?)–even though it did not develop. Early-season development is more likely in the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Carribean than elsewhere, and it’s because of the temperature of the surface of the ocean water.
Here is what Atlantic Basin water temperatures were on June 20, 2009, with the yellow and orange areas indicating where the ocean water is generally warm enough to support tropical development.(Image courtesy of NASA.)
We’ll monitor ocean temperatures as they warm over the next couple of months, but it’s clear why early-season development is favored in the areas mentioned above.