The first official forecast for the upcoming winter (that I know of) is in–and AccuWeather.com calls for a snowier-than-average winter in the Middle Atlantic and parts of the Northeast (Bastardi Says Snowiest in Over 5 Years NYC to D.C.)–areas that have experienced an unusually cool summer (Is This Year Without a Summer?).
I’m not a long-range forecaster, so I have no meteorological comment on the possible accuracyof the forecast–although I suspect that this forecast will not match most other forecasts that will follow. It seems as if many long-range winter forecasts are based exclusively on whether there will be El Nino or La Nina, and since an El Nino has formed, many forecasts will most likely simply state the main effects of an El Nino and be done with it. That would most likely result in a forecast with a less-than-stellar snow season in the East (although the presence of an El Nino does not always correlate to less snow in the Northeast) and warmer-than-average temperatures across the Deep South.
That simplified method (basing it on El Nino) will work fine as along as the El Nino is strong; a strong El Nino will tend to overwhelm other meteorological influences and result in fairly predictable results. AccuWeather believes that the El Nino will weaken during the winter, allowing other factors to influence the winter as a whole.
NOTE: For more on the winter forecast, see Harsh 2010 Winter Is Forecast.
My Connection to AccuWeather
As you may know, I worked for AccuWeather for many years, so it didn’t surprise me when I saw that AccuWeather had issued a 2009-2010 winter forecast in July. They pride themselves in their long-range forecasts, and the forecast is always led by meteorologist Joe Bastardi. Joe puts a tremendous amount of work into his long-range forecasts–it’s hard to imagine anyone doing more work than he does.
His forecast is based on myriad meteorological factors, including sea surface temperatures (Atlantic and Pacific), previous years with similar preceding summers, and the previous hurricane season. There are many other factors, but that’s not the point here. The point is that he spends many, many hours doing research before issuing a forecast. Whether right or wrong, rest assured that a tremendous amount of work went into the forecast.
Now we can just sit back and wait to see how it turns out. I hope the forecast is right since I live in the middle of the snowy and cold area on the map–although even thinking about snow in July just doesn’t seem right.
–Paul Yeager
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