Posted by: pyeager | November 15, 2009

What Thanksgiving Day Storm?

Several days ago, one of the computer models forecast a major storm for Thanksgiving Day (Winter Storm for Thanksgiving Day?), but I posted it with the disclaimer that the 384-hour GFS (the model I made reference to) was famous for its inconsistency.

Speaking of inconsistency, the latest run (the 288-hour of the GFS) of the same computer model leaves us saying “What storm?”:

thanksgiving_day_284_gfs

Forecast for Thanksgiving Day (12z run of GFS from November 15, 2009)

Inconsistency

Model inconsistency in the long-range is expected from the GFS (and all computer models), so it’s not surprising that the storm it predicted for the middle of the country is no more. These long-range computer models are used much more by us (forecasters) to help forecast the overall pattern, not the specific forecast for a specific location.

Forecast for Fun

Understanding that the specifics are again likely to change, here are a few bulleted highlights of the forecast–just for fun:

  • Morning rain in New England to the coastal Mid-Atlantic region
  • Chilly with a couple of rain and snow showers in New York state and Pennsylvania
  • Winter cold with some mainly light snow from the upper Midwest to the northern Rockies
  • Dry and pleasant (with some sunshine) in the South, extending from California to Florida

Next Update on Thursday

We’ll look at the forecast again on Thursday, which will be just a week out. By then, the specifics of the model are more within the range of what can be expected to be reasonable.

–Paul Yeager

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