If you’ve been reading the blog regularly (as if you wouldn’t be!), then you know that I promised to give an update on what one of our computer models is forecasting for Thanksgiving day.
First, though, I want to give you a chance for any new readers (in case you’re not regular readers yet) to look at the previous posts:
No Big Storm
Here is the current forecast map for Thanksgiving Day (168-hour GFS from 12z November 19):
Remember, the point of this series of blog posts was to show the change in the computer models from whenThanksgiving was day 15 on the model to when Thanksgiving actually arrives; the purpose was not to give specific forecast details for specific locations.
Now that the forecast is just one week away, however, it’s more reasonable to begin to look at the details of the forecast model more carefully–although a lot can still change during a week, so don’t make any plans based on this one computer model.
Forecast Highlights
- Snow showers in the Midwest and parts of the East (western New York to West Virginia)
- Unseasonably cold in the Midwest
- Some rain and mountain snow for the Pacific Northwest
- Dry and pleasant in the Rockies and Southwest
- Mild to the southern Plains
One More Update Early Next Week
I’ll have another update early next week, and then we’ll see what actually happens and see how accurate the forecast model was.
–Paul Yeager
I looked at a series of model solutions from the past couple days and they all seem to support what you’re saying here. Still, as you noted, much can change in the next week.
http://wxtalk.wordpress.com/2009/11/19/thanksgiving-weather-the-evolution-of-a-forecast/
By: Steve J on November 19, 2009
at 3:40 pm
Thanks, Steve. I’ll definitely take a look at your post.
By: pyeager on November 19, 2009
at 4:30 pm