Since we’ve been following a computer model (the GFS) forecast for Thanksgiving Day for two weeks now (most recently in Thanksgiving Day Forecast–No Big Storm), I wanted to look at the computer model one more time before the turkey makes its final, fateful landing on the dining room table.
Still No Big Storm
While the original forecast (from November 10) was for a major winter storm, the most recent computer models have only forecast a relatively minor storm. That’s still the case with the forecast from Tuesday morning:
Thanksgiving Day forecast (12z GFS, November 24)
Forecast Details
The point of this exercise has been to give a snapshot of what the computer model is predicting for Thanksgiving Day, not to focus on the details of the forecast for specific locations. This is a snapshot of the forecast for 7 a.m. EST (4 a.m. PST), not a forecast for the entire day. It shows a relatively weak storm, accompanied by cold air and some snow, in the upper Midwest, a little rain moving through Florida, and a rain-bearing cold front approaching the Pacific Northwest.
Note: For a specific forecast for your area for Thanksgiving Day (and related shopping/travel days following), consult your favorite local weather source.
Comparison
By the time the turkey transforms from the perfect holiday meal to dry sandwiches and the type of turkey surprise casserole that makes you wish you had Dominos on the speed dial, I’ll complete our exercise by showing the actual weather map for Thanksgiving morning and compare it to the various forecast iterations highlighted here during the last couple of weeks.
That’ll be much more interesting (and safe!) than going shopping. Black Friday sales won’t be that much better than sales in the coming weeks–when you won’t run the risk of injury going into the store.
–Paul Yeager
