We don’t even know how well the winter forecasts will turn out, and some long-range forecasters are already issuing forecasts for the 2010 hurricane season!
The first such forecast I’ve seen comes from William Gray and Philip Klotzbach from the Colorado State University (Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2010).
The early projection is for a more-active-than-normal Atlantic hurricane season, with the following highlights:
- 11-16 named storms
- 6-8 hurricanes
- 3-5 major hurricanes
- 64% chance of a major hurricane hitting the United States
No El Nino–58 Years of Data
The seasonal forecast, which has been done for the past 27 years by Colorado State University (CSU), is based, in part, on 58 years of December statistics and the belief that a multi-year El Nino (one is going on now) is unlikely.
I can’t do their 34-page forecast justice in one or two paragraphs, especially since I haven’t read the whole thing yet, so I recommend that you follow the link above.
More Information
Jeff Masters recently posted informative information related to the CSU 2010 Atlantic Basin hurricane forecast; it also includes information on a second early-season hurricane forecast and information about Dr. Gray’s controversial views (my word) on global warming.
For more, you know what to do–follow the link: Bill Gray’s 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast and Views on Global Warming.
–Paul Yeager
Paul — I just discovered your site. It is wonderfully organized and concise. Excellent work! Please continue to blog on the outlook for 2010 precip and temp in US. We need to do more to reflect on what past el nino events have given us.
By: Aaron Waller on February 15, 2010
at 11:59 pm
I forecast 8, 9 or 10 hurricanes in year 2010 for Atlantic/Gulf region.
Giant Weather
http://timegiant.wordpress.com
Stormy
By: Stormy on April 7, 2010
at 2:44 pm