Posted by: pyeager | December 21, 2009

Wild December–What About Rest of Winter?

The combination of a moderate El Nino and the presence of cold air has indeed resulted in wild weather during the month of December, with snow from West Texas to Georgia, a record-breaking snowfall in the Middle Atlantic region, and impending Christmas blizzard in the Plains. The job of meteorologists is not to recap what has happened, though; it’s to forecast what’s to come. So, the question, naturally, is whether the wild weather pattern will continue–and it appears as if the answer is yes.

The coupled forecast system, a long-range computer model belonging to the government, continues to the same ingredients have made this winter so active–a southern storm track and colder-than-normal weather in the East and South. The weather fun, although certainly impressive so far, might just be beginning.

The Forecast Maps

Here are the forecast charts for temperatures and precipitation for the United States for three-month intervals. The one of interest is the chart on the upper left of both images; it’s for December through February, enlarged as much as I can. Yes, this is the latest version of the computer model even though December is three weeks old.

Three-Month Precipitation Forecast

coupled forecast system three-month precipitation forecast

Three-Month Precipitation Forecast

coupled forecast system three-month temperature forecast


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