Posted by: pyeager | January 8, 2010

Early Summer 2010 Forecast–Very Early

by Paul Yeager, author of Weather Whys: Facts, Myths, and Oddities

It’s January 8, and the United States is currently experiencing the harshest winter in many years, and while I personally enjoy winter weather, I know that not all of us do. So, let’s take an early–very early–look at the 2010 summer forecast (June through August).

The coupled forecast system is something that I’ve talked about before on the blog; it’s a long-range forecast model used by the government to help with long-range forecasting. It is not the official NOAA forecast; it’s merely one of the tools that they use for making their official forecasts. Since the model creates a forecast for many months in advance, though, we can take a peek at what the computer model is projecting for the summer–a kind of sneak peek into lemonade and watermelon season.

Cooler and Wetter than Normal

The model is forecasting that temperatures will be below normal across much of the United States, with temperatures forecast to be significantly below normal in the middle of the country. Temperatures will be slightly above normal in South Texas, the coastal Pacific Northwest, and much of New England. (image below)

Precipitation is forecast to be less than normal in New England and parts of the Mid-Atlantic region while much of the remainder of the country, according to the model, will have more precipitation than normal. (image below)

If you’re shivering now, remember that a cooler-than-normal summer is a lot warmer than a cold winter! Hang in there.

Forecast Images

The images are tough to see–I know. The post is based on the June through August maps, which are on the right side of the images below. Temperature deviation from normal is the top image, with precipitation anamolies below. Click on the image to go to the site where you might be able to see the images better.

Three-month temperature forecast from the coupled forecast system

Three-month precipitation forecast from coupled forecast system

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Responses

  1. Its a nice site. Do you entertain general questions? If so..

    Would one generally expect this harsh winter to delay and or weaken the upcoming 2010 hurricane season?

    • I don’t generally answer questions, but this is easy enough. I wouldn’t expect the winter to have any effect on the upcoming hurricane season, at least directly. Winter will be over by then–even June hurricanes are rare.

  2. Steve
    3/22/10

    I think el nino is going away.I kind of like the cooler then normal summers.It’s more easy to walk around in.
    Were having some unusual weather and I think eventuaully we will break out of this cycle,and the heat and rain will be back,since 2007 we been slowly warming up.

  3. You are wrong, this is only a temproary cooling for a couple years due to global warming.
    This past summer in Australia and the southern hemisphere was the hottest ever, and I think its going to be a hot summer in North America too.
    Global warming is back

    • I think what you meant to say is that you believe that this one computer model is wrong.

      This is not a forecast by me or any other individual–merely the forecast generated by one computer model.

  4. Do you think now you can recant on your predictions? From where I’m sitting, it’s been the hottest summer and one of the driest I know of. Just ask my brown lawn, and the dead corn in Del.

    • It wasn’t my prediction; it was the prediction of one long-range computer model. It certainly deserves a recant, though!

  5. I think you were very wrong about your predictions! What does this say about making future predictions?

    • I don’t make long-range forecasts myself; that’s certainly not my field of expertise.

      I report what others have forecast, and this article in particular was about what one long-range computer model was forecasting; it was not a forecast by an individual.

      Having sait that, it was, indeed, very wrong!

      What that says about future forecasts is up to you.


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