By Paul Yeager, author of Weather Whys: Facts, Myths, and Oddities
I know that the perception is that Atlantic hurricane season is off to a slow start, but it’s actually right on track with the number of named storms so far (see this Jeff Masters post for more information).
The question is whether it’s going to stay on track for an average season, become worse than average like most forecasters expect, or fall behind, which it will do quickly as we head into the heart of the season.
It’ll be interesting to see. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough, and waves from Africa have been fairly numerous. Wind shear and dry has been the problem for storms–and the saving grace for those who might be affected by storms.
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The ‘perception’ of a slow starting hurricane is actually based on fact. Two of the three named storms this year are among the weakest named storms on record, and the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for both Pacific and Atlantic storms has collapsed to levels not seen since the 1970s.
This, obviously, could change tomorrow, but so far, indications are that all the variables needed to produce numerous storms are not aligning properly. Those waves out of Africa have been carrying a lot of dry, dusty Saharan air.
Forecasters were in agreement on this year’s predictions. If they prove wrong, the post-mortem debate on why should be very interesting.
By: jtom on August 14, 2010
at 5:18 pm