Posted by: pyeager | November 17, 2010

As the Computer Model Turns: Updated Thanksgiving Day Forecast

By Paul Yeager, author of Weather Whys: Facts, Myths and Oddities

In the lastest episode of our weather soap opera, As the Computer Model Turns, we take a look at the latest GFS model forecast for Thanksgiving Day 2010.

Higlights of this model run (now the 192 hour for those interested in such things) include:

  • Rain and perhaps some thunderstorms from eastern Texas into the Mid-Atlantic region
  • A little snow moving out of the Rockies (including Denver) into the Plains
  • Widespread and fairly intense cold from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies
  • Cold in northern New England
  • Little or no precipitation in the Pacific Northwest
NCEP's GFS 192-hour forecast for Thanksgiving Day 2010

NCEP's GFS 192-hour forecast for Thanksgiving Day 2010

This is quite a bit different than the earlier computer model, and I strongly suspect that it will change significantly again before the turkey comes out of the oven on November 25.

Some of the computer models in between these two examples predicted a significant snow storm in the upper Midwest, and some indicated the possibility of snow on the northern edge of the precipitation now forecast for the mid-south and Mid-Atlantic regions.

I’ll have another post in a day or two, along with more detailed information about weather-related travel delays leading up to Thanksgiving, as opposed to security-related travel delays, overbooked-airline travel delays,  and too-many-layover-related travel delays.

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