Just a quick note to let you know that I’ll be on NPR’s popular Science Friday show tomorrow to join host Ira Flatow and fellow guests Andrew Fraknoi and David Mizejewski. The segment will be called Winter Wonderland? Wonder No Longer.

One such accident occurred on I-80 in Jefferson County in Pennsylvania on Monday. Fortunately, no one was killed in the 45-vehicle accident that included a significant number of tractor trailers. WJAC-TV in Johnstown had some video coverage of the accident.

I-80 is notorious for such accidents, and much of the reason is related to the frequency of snow squalls associated with lake-effect snow, the situation that spawned yesterday’s accident.

Unrelated note:

I know that I have not been posting with great regularity lately, but don’t forget…I do occasionally post blogs on the Huffington Post as well.

Be careful even if the forecast sounds innocent!

If you’ve followed the blog for the last couple of years, you probably noticed that I think we get a little too Christmas obsessed in this country, but who doesn’t love a Christmas classic song? Here’s one from a familiar voice to all of us: “Deck the Halls” by the fake voice that does the NOAA forecasts and warnings.

Since we’re in the Christmas song theme, here are some “Creepy Christmas Carols for a Less Cheerful Holiday.”

One repeating theme of Christmas songs is that they sound sad and depressing. I mean, do they still play that song about the kid buying a pair of shoes for his mother because she’s going to “meet Jesus” on Christmas eve? I mean, seriously, pass me the rum–I need another shot.

It’s not only the songs, but it’s the way they’re performed. Any time anyone tries to sing a Christmas carol, they try to do so dramatically and with extra emotion–and the result is a whiny, sad song. If it’s such a happy time, then why is everyone so freaking sad?

I know that my weather geek side is showing, but I love videos like this.

The video shows a continuous satellite loop of the entire 2011 Atlantic basin hurricane season. I have done a little analysis on the Huffington Post, but even without any analysis, it’s enjoyable to watch.

The ongoing devastating Texas drought has had one interesting side effect: the appearance of the remnants of an old ghost town, Bluffton, that was flooded in 1937 when a dam resulted in the creation of Lake Buchanan.

The lake is only receiving 10% of its normal water, and the water level is down an astonishing 32 feet. Even when the rain normal or above-normal rainfall returns, it will take years for the lake to return.

Foundations and even a graveyard have been revealed by the drought, and more information can be found on Radio Netherlands Worldwide.

Remember, just because I don’t post information here, it doesn’t mean that I’m not writing about the weather. Check out my posts at the Huffington Post, which should show up in the RSS feeds on this page as well.

Recently, I highlighted the difference between NOAA and NASA/Remote Sensing Systems global temperatures for October (18th Warmest October or 15th Coolest?).

I also highlighted an interesting video that shows time-lapse video that shows the weather for the past year for the past year in San Francisco. The video shows mini-videos for every day of the year at the same time, giving a truly unique perspective on the weather.

I’ll post the video below, but for more analysis, see the Huffington Post Blog (360 Days of Sun, Clouds, and Rain).

I’d love to see a video like that for a region where the weather is a little more active, and the sky is a little more changeable.

I know. Many people have been asking me about Thanksgiving Day weather, but I haven’t had a chance to post any information…but…since most of the turkey are still frozen, it’s not too late.

A major storm or two often highlights Thanksgiving Day weather since it’s getting into that stormy time of year; however, it appears as if the holiday that we all seem to barely tolerate before starting the over-hyped and excessively long “Christmas season” (how’s that for an editorial comment?) will be fairly tranquil across the United States.

Here’s a forecast map for early Thanksgiving Day (GFS output from Saturday morning):

Computer forecast model (GFS) for Thanksgiving Day

If this forecast is right, then there will be some rain and high-mountain snow along the West Coast from two storms–one weakening as it heads through California and a stronger one plowing into the Pacific Northwest. The remainder of the country will generally be dry and mild–perfect turkey-eating weather.

This doesn’t mean that the weather leading up to the holiday–travel days during the first part of the week–will be just as uneventful, though. The storm show in the western Atlantic on the Thursday map will track from the Plains to off the East Coast during the next several days.

Dangerous thunderstorms, including the possibility of isolated tornadoes, will occur in the southern Plains as early as Sunday and, by Tuesday, heavy rain and strong thunderstorms will extend from the Missouri Valley into parts of the Southern Plains. Showers and a couple of thunderstorms will move through the East on Wednesday, with the possibility of being cold enough for snow in parts of New England.

By the time Thanksgiving rolls around, though, much of the nation will have quiet weather, which is good since we’ll all need time to start obsessing about Christmas–something I’ve written about before: Five Weather Seasons, and Romanticized White Christmas.

The stage is being set for a rare, dangerous, and damaging major early-season winter snow storm in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic regions.

Here is a map with watches and warnings as of Friday afternoon, which looks more like a map you’d expect to see in December or January than October:

A significant accumulation of snow will occur over a large area from West Virginia and western Virginia to New England, with some accumulation of snow even possible along the highly populated corridor from Boston to Washington, D.C.

The heaviest snow will likely occur from parts of eastern Pennsylvania to interior New England, where a foot of very heavy, very wet snow will fall.

The dangers of the early season storm include:

• Travel problems–even though the snow will not accumulate as effectively on the relatively warm pavement and ground of October as it would in the heart of winter, it will snow heavily enough in many areas for roads to become dangerous for travel, especially in regions where road crews are not yet prepared to deal with heavy snow.
• Power outages and downed trees–any heavy, wet snow has the potential to cause downed tree limbs and power lines (typically, power lines are brought down by falling limbs), but this is especially true when the trees still have leaves on them, which is certainly the case over much of the warned area. Power outages might be the worst part of the storm.
• Shoveling danger–this snow will be very slushy and heavy, so those with any type of health condition need to be very careful when shoveling the snow this weekend.

The Great Pumpkin hasn’t even come and gone yet, but winter storm watches are in effect for portions of eastern Pennsylvania and northwestern New Jersey for Saturday and Saturday evening.

Significant snow by winter standards is a threat from West Virginia and Maryland northeastward into much of southern New England, including the potential for more than eight inches from northeastern Pennsylvania to interior southern New England.

If this Eastern snow storm does materialize–and that’s not certain yet due to model uncertainty and the depth of the cold air so early in the season–it would fall in a region where many trees still have their leaves, resulting in widespread tree damage and downed power lines. This would be more of a concern than the traditional travel problems since the snow would melt fairly quickly on paved surfaces after being plowed or treated with salt.

The downed trees and power lines could be a major problem.

Let’s just hope that it’s more computer model mayhem than a legitimate fall snow storm, but the computer models are frightening–and not in a Halloween sort of way.

Here are images from the 18z run of the GFS, meaning the mid-afternoon run of the main American computer forecast model for those of you who don’t speak meteorology-ese.

This map is the model output for midday on Saturday:

Here is the map for six hours later, at roughly 1 a.m. on Sunday.

I’ve never been a big fan of probabilty outlooks rather than specific forecasts, which is what NOAA does, but they know much more about long-range forecasting than I do. And with that in mind, here’s a link to the NOAA 2011-2012 Winter Outlook. Also, feel free to check out my Huffington Post blog on the topic.

La Nina is one factor highlighted, of course, but they also discussed the Arctic Oscillation, which had a dramatic impact on the weather during each of the last two winters.

The forecast highlights include:

• the likely continuation of the drought in the Southern Plains, along with drier-than-average weather across all of the Deep South
• the likelihood of wet and cool weather in the Pacific Northwest and northern Plains
• the likelihood of colder-than-average weather in the northern Plains
• the potential for more storms than average in the Midwest
• uncertainty in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic regions

That uncertainty, which is indicated by equal chances of temperatures and precipitation being above or below average, is what I mean when I talk about not being a fan of probabilitic forecasting schemes. The forecast sounds like–and basically is–a flip of the coin.

I understand that weather phenomena such as the Arctic Oscillation will have a major impact on the weather and cannot be predicted months in advance, but take a shot about whether you think they’ll happen and make a forecast…not just a coin toss.

(Image courtesy of Theonlysilentbob)