The AccuWeather.com 2010 hurricane season forecast (led by Joe Bastardi) was issued this week, and it follows the lead of forecasts issued earlier, expecting the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season to be more active.

Not only does Bastardi believe that the season will be more active, but he believes that it has the potential to be an “extreme” season, which I wrote about in a recent AOL news article.

The forecast is based on specific meteorological factors, such as a weakening El Nino, warmer Atlantic sea surface temperatures, and the expectation of less dry air from Africa being pulled into the tropical Atlantic.

Before you dismiss all of the forecasts for a more active season as pure hype, it’s worth noting that most experts (including Bastardi) accurately forecast the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season to be less active than normal.

With tornado season beginning, talk about storm chasing will soon begin in earnest. I’ve often wondered whether storm chasers were interested in science, thrill, or competition.

Since I know that many of you are relatively new to the site, having just recently discovered it after seeing or hearing me talk about my book (Weather Whys: Facts, Myths, and Oddities), I thought this would be a good time to review my earlier storm-chasing posts:

• Storm Chasers–Scientists or Thrill Seekers?
• Are Storms the Most Important Thing to Chasers?

We’re in March now, so the melting of the heavy snow pack across the United States is inevitable–and this melting is often accompanied by the threat of flooding along rivers and streams. Unfortunately, it appears as if the Red River Valley in the northern Plains of the United States is–just like last year–at the risk for serious flooding in the coming weeks.

The following map, compliments of the National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center, shows the water equivalent in the snow pack across the United States.

NOHRSC map of liquid equivalent as of March 7, 2010

The map indicates the amount of moisture in the snow pack in the northern Plains, and I’ll have more about the potential flooding along the Red River in coming days. Other areas of concern seem to be parts of the interior Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region, even though much of the deep snow pack in the Mid-Atlantic has, fortunately, melted recently.

There is also plenty of liquid in the snow in parts of the Rockies and the mountains of the West, but these regions are more likely to be able to handle to melting snow without flooding problems.

If there’s one way to communicate poorly, it’s to not look at a topic through the eyes of the audience. That’s what meteorologists do every time they talk about “severe weather season” instead of something that would be better understood by the public, such as “tornado season.”

A meteorologist defines severe weather as the damage caused by thunderstorms, such as hail, wind damage, and tornadoes; however, the average person defines severe weather as any weather that is, well, severe. This would include blizzards, floods, record-breaking cold, and thunderstorm-related damage.

Being one, I know how the mind of the meteorologist works; they’re concerned that tornado season wouldn’t adequately cover the range of potential damage that the current definition of severe weather does since it wouldn’t include hail or wind damage.

That’s a reasonable point, but calling it tornado season would better represent the types of weather intended to be referenced than a generic term such as severe weather.

Remember, communication is about the audience, not the speaker.

This is probably a good chance to review what the blog is about and tell you a little about myself. I’m a meteorologist with over 20 years of coast-to-coast forecasting experience, and I’m also a writer. I’m a contributor to aol news, which has recently been redesigned and expanded to include much more original reporting, analysis, and commentary.

Weather Whys is my second book; I’ve also written Literally, the Best Language Book Ever and co-write the language and grammar blog, languageandgrammar.com.

As far as Cloudy and Cool is concerned, it’s not a forecasting blog as much as it in national commentary and analysis of weather from a national perspective. I’ll take a look at various long-range forecasts when they’ve been issued, comment on the overall weather pattern, make observations related to current weather, put current storms in perspective, and touch on some of the basics of weather and meteorology.

Specific local forecasts are best left to the experts in a given region, and with that in mind, my blogroll is composed of many excellent local weather blogs.

–Paul Yeager

Not because I’m going to be on it, certainly, but Weather Brains is a terrific weather podcast–if you love the weather, you’ll love the show. It’s that simple. The amount of weather coverage in this country is not equal to the amount of interest, and shows like Weather Brains does a great job of filling the void.

–Paul

One of the advance-sale copies was reviewed by EMagazine.com. The review is about 2/3 of the way down the page.

The reviewer was very kind and mentioned that the book is a candidate for bathroom book of the year, which I guess means that if you have 2 1/2 bathrooms in the house, you need to buy 2 1/2 copies!

–Paul Yeager

There has been a lot of talk about who may or may not be a socialist in this country lately (and by a lot of talk, I mean that some strange things have been said), but there’s no doubt that mother nature is a socialist. She believes in the even distribution of snowstorms.

She’s sent major snowstorms to the West, the Deep South, and the Mid-Atlantic region (where seasonal snowfall records have been broken), but the Northeast has had fewer storms than average.

This week, it’s the Northeast’s turn, and it’s likely to be a full-fledged blizzard, the defining storm of the season, and one remembered for a very long time.

I wrote about it on aol news for those of you who are interested: Major Northeast Snowstorm on the Way.

I know that winter is getting old for many of us, so I thought I’d take another look at the Coupled Forecast System model forecast for the summer weather across the United States, which is something that I did back in January (Early Summer 2010 Forecast–Very Early).

The general forecast for June through August is similar to the original, with cooler- and wetter-than-normal weather predicted for much of the United States.

Remember, this is no forecast by a meteorologist; this is merely one of the tools that government (and private) meteorologists will use to create their official long-range forecasts.

Temperatures

The exceptions to the below-average temperature forecast remain New England, southern Florida, South Texas, and the West Coast, with the coolest air (relative to average) being forecast in the middle of the country.

CFS temperature anomaly forecast for June through August 2010

Precipitation

The wettest weather (compared to average) is forecast in the Midwest and parts of the Deep South, with the exception of South Texas. While western areas are forecast for more precipitation than normal, this may not mean much–so little precipitation falls in this region during the summer that the actual amount of rain will most likely still be negligible.

CFS precipitation anomaly for June through August 2010

Benefit: Drought May End Completely

I’ve already talked about the greatly improved drought conditions in California, both on this blog (California Drought: Greatly Improved But Not Over) and on AOL News (Winter Storms Improve Calif. Drought Conditions), but will the next round of storms be enough to completely eradicate the three-year drought?

NOAA Pacific satellite image from Feb. 18, 2010

My guess is that they will, at least for a large percentage of the state. The first couple of storms (shown on the above map) will not be nearly as strong as the storms in January, so the rain and mountain snow will assist in eliminating the long-term drought without causing widespread, serious problems.  

Danger: Mudslides, Flooding, Avalanches

The bad news is that these storms will most likely be followed by much stronger storms from the last couple of days of February through at least the first week of March. The first round of storms produced as much as 20 inches of rain and 10 feet of snow in a week, and these storms have that potential.

In other words, the end of the drought might be accompanied by flooding, mudslides, and perhaps even the danger of avalanches from the heavy snow.

–Paul Yeager